VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| VCADX Fund | USD 11.57 0.01 0.09% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Hype-based context for Vanguard California Intermediate Term connects recent headlines with price response and peer activity.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vanguard California Intermediate Term on the next trading day is expected to be 11.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60.VANGUARD CALIFORNIA after-hype prediction price | $ 11.57 |
This sentiment summary adds context across forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings perspectives for the fund.
VANGUARD |
VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VANGUARD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VANGUARD using various technical indicators. When you analyze VANGUARD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vanguard California Intermediate Term on the next trading day is expected to be 11.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.60 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VANGUARD Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VANGUARD CALIFORNIA | VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Vanguard California Intermediate Term focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 11.43 and upside around 11.69 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VANGUARD CALIFORNIA mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VANGUARD CALIFORNIA mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.6049 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.44 and 11.70, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Vanguard California Intermediate Term uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as VANGUARD CALIFORNIA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VANGUARD CALIFORNIA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VANGUARD CALIFORNIA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 2 Events | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.57 | 11.57 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Vanguard California is at this time traded for 11.57. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VANGUARD is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on VANGUARD CALIFORNIA is about 72.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.57. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Historical Fundamental Analysis of VANGUARD CALIFORNIA provides a cross-check on projections for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between VANGUARD CALIFORNIA and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VCAIX | Vanguard California Intermediate Term | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.17 | -0.26 | 0.77 | |
| IEI | iShares 3 7 Year | 1.41 | 8 per month | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.27 | -0.20 | 0.85 | |
| VMBS | Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities | 0.07 | 6 per month | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.32 | -0.27 | 1.16 | |
| RDVY | First Trust Rising | -0.79 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.60 | -1.83 | 4.19 | |
| VCORX | Vanguard E Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.22 | -0.22 | 0.88 | |
| VCOBX | Vanguard E Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.22 | -0.28 | 0.94 | |
| DFUS | Dimensional Equity ETF | -0.36 | 5 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.89 | -1.38 | 3.72 | |
| IWV | iShares Russell 3000 | 1.47 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.84 | -1.34 | 3.70 | |
| CGGR | Capital Group Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 1.37 | -1.98 | 4.60 | |
| VHCIX | Vanguard Health Care | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.45 | -1.17 | 3.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering VANGUARD needs to understand the dynamics of VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's price movement. Price charts for VANGUARD Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Related Equities
The following equities are related to VANGUARD CALIFORNIA within the Muni California Intermediate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VANGUARD CALIFORNIA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Vanguard California Intermediate Term.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.57 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.25 |
VANGUARD CALIFORNIA Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with VANGUARD CALIFORNIA's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0838 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1255 | |||
| Variance | 0.0158 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0468 | |||
| Semi Variance | -0.0048 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VANGUARD CALIFORNIA
A coverage review of Vanguard California Intermediate Term helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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