VANGUARD BALANCED Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| VBAIX Fund | USD 50.58 -0.14 -0.28% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast shown here for VANGUARD BALANCED is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Polynomial Regression output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Balanced Index on the next trading day is expected to be 50.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.76.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the VANGUARD BALANCED historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression reference page for VANGUARD BALANCED presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vanguard Balanced Index on the next trading day is expected to be 50.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.76 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VANGUARD Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VANGUARD BALANCED's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VANGUARD BALANCED | VANGUARD BALANCED Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates VANGUARD BALANCED's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 49.62 on the downside to about 50.65 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VANGUARD BALANCED mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VANGUARD BALANCED mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1193 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1896 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7559 |
Other Forecasting Options for VANGUARD BALANCED
The distribution of VANGUARD BALANCED's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in VANGUARD BALANCED's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of VANGUARD BALANCED's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in VANGUARD.VANGUARD BALANCED Related Equities
Investors studying VANGUARD BALANCED often look at related stocks within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space to gauge pricing and results. Checking VANGUARD BALANCED against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. How VANGUARD BALANCED ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VANGUARD BALANCED Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for VANGUARD BALANCED give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Vanguard Balanced Index. Market strength analysis for Vanguard Balanced Index works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For VANGUARD BALANCED, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 50.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 50.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.14 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.75 |
VANGUARD BALANCED Risk Indicators
A thorough review of VANGUARD BALANCED's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in VANGUARD BALANCED's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of VANGUARD BALANCED's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in VANGUARD BALANCED's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3896 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5078 | |||
| Variance | 0.2578 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VANGUARD BALANCED
A coverage review of Vanguard Balanced Index shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.