SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| USTCX Fund | USD 28.46 -0.02 -0.07% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Science Technology Fund is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Science Technology Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.81.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Science Technology Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Science Technology Fund are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Science Technology Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.15 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.81 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SCIENCE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY | SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Science Technology Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 27.16 and upside near 29.76.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3578 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0262 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2968 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering SCIENCE needs to understand the dynamics of SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY's price movement. Price charts for SCIENCE Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY Related Equities
The following equities are related to SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY within the Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Science Technology Fund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.92 |
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
Story coverage around Science Technology Fund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.