ProShares Ultra Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UPV Etf | USD 85.58 0.08 0.09% |
This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for ProShares Ultra FTSE presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares Ultra FTSE on the next trading day is expected to be 84.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.86.When ProShares Ultra FTSE prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ProShares Ultra FTSE trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ProShares Ultra observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for ProShares Ultra FTSE are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares Ultra FTSE on the next trading day is expected to be 84.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.42 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.51 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.86 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares Ultra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares Ultra | ProShares Ultra Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for ProShares Ultra FTSE uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 82.91 on the downside to about 86.77 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares Ultra etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares Ultra etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3387 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4213 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.855 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares Ultra
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether ProShares is a viable investment for any investor. ProShares Etf price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.ProShares Ultra Related Equities
The following equities are related to ProShares Ultra within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ProShares Ultra against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares Ultra Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of ProShares Ultra etf provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading ProShares Ultra FTSE is most likely to be profitable.
ProShares Ultra Risk Indicators
The analysis of ProShares Ultra's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ProShares Ultra's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ProShares Ultra
Coverage intensity for ProShares Ultra FTSE matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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More Resources for ProShares Etf Analysis
Reviewing ProShares Ultra FTSE commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for ProShares Ultra FTSE Etf. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for ProShares Ultra FTSE Etf:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Ultra to cross-verify projections for ProShares Ultra. The historical view provides additional context. Investors get more value from ProShares Ultra analysis when it is combined with other construction and diversification tools. A thorough ProShares Ultra review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
ProShares Ultra FTSE's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on ProShares's balance sheet. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that ProShares Ultra's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. Reviewing financial results, valuation ratios, and competitive positioning helps frame the value discussion. ProShares Ultra market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.