Upstart Holdings Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| UPST Stock | USD 25.98 -0.79 -2.95% |
This page provides reference data for Upstart Holdings using Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upstart Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 25.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.83.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Upstart Holdings observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Upstart Holdings observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Upstart Holdings presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Upstart Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 25.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.83 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Upstart Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Upstart Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Upstart Holdings | Upstart Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Upstart Holdings for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Upstart Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Upstart Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3131 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3192 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0369 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 77.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Upstart Holdings
For investors considering Upstart, Upstart Holdings' price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Upstart Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Upstart Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to Upstart Holdings within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Upstart Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Upstart Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Upstart Holdings provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Upstart Holdings.
Upstart Holdings Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Upstart Holdings' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Upstart Holdings' allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Variance | 19.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Upstart Holdings
A coverage review of Upstart Holdings shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Upstart Holdings Short Properties
A short-interest review of Upstart Holdings provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 657.4 M |
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