ULTRASHORT MID-CAP Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UIPSX Fund | USD 20.75 -0.36 -1.71% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 20.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.20.When Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ULTRASHORT MID-CAP observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 20.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.20 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ULTRASHORT Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ULTRASHORT MID-CAP | ULTRASHORT MID-CAP Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 18.63 on the downside to about 22.82 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ULTRASHORT MID-CAP mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ULTRASHORT MID-CAP mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0441 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3367 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.2012 |
Other Forecasting Options for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP
The distribution of ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's chart that simple price charts miss.ULTRASHORT MID-CAP Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of ULTRASHORT MID-CAP within the Trading--Inverse Equity space and offer context for ranking and strength. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's results. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. Tracking ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ULTRASHORT MID-CAP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.36 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.68 |
ULTRASHORT MID-CAP Risk Indicators
A thorough review of ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in ULTRASHORT MID-CAP's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ULTRASHORT MID-CAP
Coverage intensity for Ultrashort Mid Cap Profund matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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