INTERNATIONAL FUND Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UIIFX Fund | USD 30.77 -0.08 -0.26% |
INTERNATIONAL FUND's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Fund International on the next trading day is expected to be 30.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.05.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting International Fund International forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent INTERNATIONAL FUND observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. INTERNATIONAL FUND's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Fund International on the next trading day is expected to be 30.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.05 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INTERNATIONAL FUND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest INTERNATIONAL FUND | INTERNATIONAL FUND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for International Fund International focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 29.64 on the downside to about 31.90 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INTERNATIONAL FUND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INTERNATIONAL FUND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0534 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2631 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for INTERNATIONAL FUND
Analyzing INTERNATIONAL FUND's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in INTERNATIONAL FUND's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.INTERNATIONAL FUND Related Equities
Checking INTERNATIONAL FUND against related firms within the Foreign Large Blend space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking INTERNATIONAL FUND against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
INTERNATIONAL FUND Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for INTERNATIONAL FUND mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade INTERNATIONAL FUND.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 |
INTERNATIONAL FUND Risk Indicators
Assessing INTERNATIONAL FUND's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting INTERNATIONAL FUND's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7859 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.70 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for INTERNATIONAL FUND
Story coverage around International Fund International often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.