UGI Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UGI Stock | USD 37.43 0.30 0.80% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UGI Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 37.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.28. UGI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UGI's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of UGI's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.13 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.37 | Wall Street Target Price 44 |
Using UGI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UGI Corporation from the perspective of UGI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UGI using UGI's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UGI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UGI's stock price.
UGI Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UGI's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UGI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UGI stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 34.8353 | Short Percent 0.0892 | Short Ratio 8.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.6 M | 50 Day MA 36.276 |
UGI Corporation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UGI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UGI Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UGI's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UGI.
UGI Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
UGI's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UGI Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UGI's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UGI stock will not fluctuate a lot when UGI's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UGI Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 37.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.28. UGI after-hype prediction price | USD 37.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGI to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 UGI Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UGI's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UGI's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UGI stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UGI's open interest, investors have to compare it to UGI's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UGI is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UGI. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UGI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze UGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UGI Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UGI Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 37.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UGI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UGI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UGI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UGI | UGI Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
UGI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UGI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UGI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.19 and 38.81, respectively. We have considered UGI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UGI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UGI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0214 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3098 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.28 |
Predictive Modules for UGI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UGI Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for UGI
For every potential investor in UGI, whether a beginner or expert, UGI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UGI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UGI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UGI's price trends.UGI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UGI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UGI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UGI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UGI Corporation Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UGI's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UGI's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UGI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UGI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UGI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UGI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UGI Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
UGI Risk Indicators
The analysis of UGI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UGI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ugi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8702 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9047 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8186 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether UGI Corporation offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of UGI's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ugi Corporation Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ugi Corporation Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGI to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UGI. If investors know UGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UGI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 1.5 | Earnings Share 3.09 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of UGI Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UGI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UGI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UGI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UGI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UGI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UGI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UGI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.