United Guardian Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| UG Stock | USD 6.26 -0.04 -0.63% |
This page provides Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for United Guardian, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Guardian on the next trading day is expected to be 6.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past United Guardian observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older United Guardian observations. United Guardian's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Guardian on the next trading day is expected to be 6.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Guardian's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Guardian | United Guardian Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting United Guardian for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 3.97 on the downside to about 8.53 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Guardian stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Guardian stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0196 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.099 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.9407 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Guardian
The price movement of United is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. United Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.United Guardian Related Equities
The following equities are related to United Guardian within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing United Guardian against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Guardian Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to United Guardian stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell United Guardian.
| Accumulation Distribution | 226.93 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.18 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 |
United Guardian Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for United Guardian is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in United Guardian's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Guardian
Coverage intensity for United Guardian matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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United Guardian Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to United Guardian matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.4 M |