UFP Technologies Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

UFPT Stock  USD 204.31  -5.28  -2.52%   
Per the latest calculation, UFP Technologies posts the short-cycle RSI reading of 39, reflecting mild downside bias. For UFP Technologies, this sub-50 reading points to a soft downward drift rather than an aggressive selloff.
Momentum
 Impartial
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
This module analyzes aggregated news and social signals around UFP Technologies to forecast near-term price direction. It is best used as one input among several, alongside fundamental and technical analysis. Primary fundamentals used for UFP Technologies' price context:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.068
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.47
 EPS Estimate Current Year
10.2425
 EPS Estimate Next Year
11.4525
 Wall Street Target Price
324.5
This section summarizes UFP Technologies headline activity and related price response context. Options and short interest metrics are combined here to describe sentiment for UFP Technologies.

Short Interest Activity for UFP Technologies

Short sellers in UFP Technologies profit when UFP Technologies' stock falls below their entry price. Monitoring short interest helps long investors understand the magnitude of selling pressure they face.
 200 Day MA
225.4909
 Short Percent
0.1786
 Short Ratio
5.26
 Shares Short Prior Month
1.1 M
 50 Day MA
241.0984

RSI Momentum View - UFP

The Simple Regression forecasted value of UFP Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 228.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,074.

Hype and Price Context: UFP Technologies

When UFP Technologies' news sentiment peaks, stock prices often follow with a lag. Similarly, sentiment troughs can mark price bottoms if fundamental business quality remains intact.
Tracking how UFP Technologies' sentiment evolves after major announcements helps investors assess whether the market's reaction was proportionate or whether an over-correction created a new entry opportunity in UFP Technologies.
UFP Technologies Implied Volatility
    
  1.57  
The implied volatility skew for UFP Technologies options - the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls at different strikes - reveals the market's asymmetric fear of downside versus upside moves in UFP Technologies' stock.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UFP Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 228.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,074.
UFP Technologies after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 204.31  
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Cross-verify projections for UFP Technologies using Historical Fundamental Analysis of UFP Technologies. The historical view provides additional context.
Learn how to buy and trade UFP Stock using our step-by-step How to Buy UFP Technologies guide.

Rule 16 Reference for the current UFP contract - Pricing Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-03-20 options is about 0.0981%. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 204.31, it implies a move of about $ 0.2 per day.

Open Interest Distribution for UFP 2026-03-20 Options

Active contract counts for UFP Technologies are shown through open interest, offering positioning and liquidity context.

UFP Technologies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine UFP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UFP using various technical indicators. When you analyze UFP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through UFP Technologies price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of UFP Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 228.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 360.79 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,074 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UFP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UFP Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest UFP Technologies  UFP Technologies Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for UFP Technologies uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
204.31
225.54
Downside
228.45
Expected Value
231.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UFP Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UFP Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.8367
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation17.329
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0739
SAESum of the absolute errors1074.3959
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as UFP Technologies historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.
The mean reversion framework for UFP Technologies is built on the premise that markets are not perfectly efficient and that prices periodically overshoot their intrinsic value in both directions.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
201.42204.31207.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
170.77173.66224.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
185.19230.01274.82
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
295.30324.50360.20
Details
Investors analyzing UFP Technologies should position it within its competitive landscape. Superior peer-relative performance is one of the strongest justifications for a valuation premium.

After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Visualizing the full distribution of potential UFP Technologies outcomes discourages binary thinking about investments. Rather than asking whether UFP Technologies' price will go up or down, the distribution approach asks: what is the range of outcomes and how probable is each?
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The news-based price prediction model for UFP Technologies is transparent: it measures how UFP Technologies' has historically reacted to news, not how it will theoretically behave. UFP Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 201.42 and 207.20, respectively. Investors should use this model as one input among many when evaluating UFP Technologies ahead of anticipated news.
Current Value
204.31
201.42
Downside
204.31
After-hype Price
207.20
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to UFP Technologies assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UFP Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UFP Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UFP Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
2.91
  0.03 
  0.06 
14 Events
7 Events
In 14 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
204.31
204.31
0.00 
570.59  
Notes

Hype Timeline

UFP Technologies is at this time traded for 204.31. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. UFP is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on UFP Technologies is about 306.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 204.37. About 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of UFP Technologies was at this time reported as 54.95. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.74. UFP Technologies had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 14 days.
Cross-verify projections for UFP Technologies using Historical Fundamental Analysis of UFP Technologies. The historical view provides additional context.
Learn how to buy and trade UFP Stock using our step-by-step How to Buy UFP Technologies guide.

Related Hype Analysis

The peer hype analysis for UFP Technologies identifies which competitors tend to lead the sector in their news reactions. These leading indicators provide early signals about the direction of UFP Technologies' upcoming performance.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CNMDCONMED-0.83 4 per month 0.00 -0.06 3.36 -3.89 11.74
SSIISS Innovations International-0.25 7 per month 0.00 -0.0027 10.84 -9.94 43.77
ESTAEstablishment Labs Holdings 13.20 10 per month 0.00 -0.02 4.55 -5.74 13.50
AHCOAdapthealth Corp-1.19 7 per month 3.15 0.05 4.59 -3.90 22.33
ALVOAlvotech-0.02 10 per month 0.00 -0.17 3.98 -5.82 16.71
PGNYProgyny-2.06 10 per month 0.00 -0.10 3.57 -5.16 25.79
SDGRSchrodinger 0.08 9 per month 0.00 -0.14 4.96 -5.42 21.90
SEMSelect Medical Holdings 1.01 3 per month 1.29 0.11 2.16 -1.59 8.88
OMCLOmnicell-1.01 9 per month 0.00  0.0027 4.22 -4.34 23.86
IMNMImmunome 0.56 10 per month 4.34 0.05 6.56 -6.10 31.45

Other Forecasting Options for UFP Technologies

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether UFP is a viable investment for any investor. UFP Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

UFP Technologies Related Equities

The following equities are related to UFP Technologies within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing UFP Technologies against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UFP Technologies Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of UFP Technologies stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading UFP Technologies is most likely to be profitable.

UFP Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of UFP Technologies' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in UFP Technologies' helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for UFP Technologies

Coverage intensity for UFP Technologies matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

UFP Technologies Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to UFP Technologies matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments20.3 M

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