United Fire Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UFCS Stock | USD 36.40 -0.10 -0.27% |
United Fire Group's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for United Fire. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for United Fire.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 36.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.43.When United Fire Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any United Fire Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent United Fire observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for United Fire Group are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Fire Group on the next trading day is expected to be 36.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.43 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Fire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Fire | United Fire Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for United Fire Group focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 34.71 and upside near 37.99.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Fire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Fire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0436 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4649 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Fire
Bollinger Bands applied to United Stock price data measure how far United has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to United Fire's price data. On-balance volume for United Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in United. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for United Fire's.United Fire Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as United Fire within the Financials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at United Fire's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Fire Market Strength Events
For investors tracking United Fire Group, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell United Fire Group. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in United Fire. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around United Fire Group.
United Fire Risk Indicators
Analyzing United Fire's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for united stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in United Fire's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing United Fire's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in United Fire's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Fire
Coverage intensity for United Fire Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
United Fire Short Properties
A short-interest review of United Fire Group provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 156.3 M |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Cryptocurrency Center Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios |