ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| UAPIX Fund | USD 75.16 0.69 0.93% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Moving Average output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 75.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.74.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 75.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 4.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.74 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ULTRASMALL-CAP Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND | ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 72.71 and upside near 77.61.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7101 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0851 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6457 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 98.745 |
Other Forecasting Options for ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND
The distribution of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in ULTRASMALL-CAP.ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND Related Equities
These related stocks within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space give benchmarks for judging ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's results, margins, and growth trend. Growth rate gaps between ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap. Market strength analysis for Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 75.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 75.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.69 |
ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND Risk Indicators
A thorough review of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Variance | 5.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.7 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ULTRASMALL-CAP PROFUND
Story coverage around Ultrasmall Cap Profund Ultrasmall Cap often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.