TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TSMEX Fund | USD 15.53 -0.39 -2.45% |
TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 15.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.35.When TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 15.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.35 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TIAA-CREF Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap | TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0293 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1416 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.353 |
Other Forecasting Options for TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap
Analyzing TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap Related Equities
These stocks are related to TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap within the Small Blend space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Growth rate gaps between TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.20 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.39 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.67 |
TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap Risk Indicators
Assessing TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8239 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TIAA-CREF Small/Mid-Cap
Coverage intensity for TIAA Cref Smallmid Cap Equity matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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