Tesla Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TSLA Stock | USD 383.11 0.00 0.00% |
This reference view applies Simple Exponential Smoothing to Tesla Inc's historical closing prices. Tesla Inc's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Tesla Inc's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Tesla Inc.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tesla Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 383.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 451.57.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Tesla Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Tesla observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Tesla Inc are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tesla Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 383.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.53 , mean absolute percentage error of 87.15 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 451.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tesla Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tesla's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Tesla's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 380.91 and upside near 385.31.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tesla stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tesla stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7402 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.7048 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.5262 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 451.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tesla
Volume-weighted price analysis for Tesla Stock gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in Tesla momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing Tesla's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in Tesla Stock price action.Tesla Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Consumer Discretionary space can help frame Tesla's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Tesla against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tesla Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of Tesla stock allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Tesla Inc trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when Tesla stock shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Tesla Inc strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1.7 M | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 381.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 382.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.22 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.77 |
Tesla Risk Indicators
Understanding Tesla's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Tesla's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing Tesla's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for tesla stock becomes clearer when Tesla's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tesla
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Tesla Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Tesla Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Tesla Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.1 B |