Trinseo SA Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TSE Stock | USD 0.48 0.02 4.35% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trinseo SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26. Trinseo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Trinseo SA stock prices and determine the direction of Trinseo SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Trinseo SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Trinseo SA's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (2.15) | EPS Estimate Current Year (8.83) | EPS Estimate Next Year (7.53) | Wall Street Target Price 0.8333 |
Using Trinseo SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trinseo SA from the perspective of Trinseo SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trinseo SA using Trinseo SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trinseo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trinseo SA's stock price.
Trinseo SA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Trinseo SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Trinseo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Trinseo SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 2.2044 | Short Percent 0.1386 | Short Ratio 2.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 0.6996 |
Trinseo SA Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Trinseo SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trinseo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trinseo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trinseo SA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Trinseo SA Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Trinseo SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trinseo SA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trinseo SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trinseo SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trinseo SA's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trinseo SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26. Trinseo SA after-hype prediction price | USD 0.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trinseo SA to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Trinseo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trinseo SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trinseo SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trinseo SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trinseo SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trinseo SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trinseo SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trinseo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trinseo SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trinseo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trinseo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trinseo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trinseo SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trinseo SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trinseo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trinseo SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trinseo SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trinseo SA | Trinseo SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trinseo SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trinseo SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trinseo SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 9.33, respectively. We have considered Trinseo SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trinseo SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trinseo SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0363 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0167 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0543 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0679 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.26 |
Predictive Modules for Trinseo SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trinseo SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trinseo SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trinseo SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trinseo SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trinseo SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trinseo SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trinseo SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trinseo SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trinseo SA's historical news coverage. Trinseo SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 9.51, respectively. We have considered Trinseo SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trinseo SA is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trinseo SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trinseo SA Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trinseo SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trinseo SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trinseo SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.53 | 8.85 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.48 | 0.59 | 22.92 |
|
Trinseo SA Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Trinseo SA is traded for 0.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Trinseo is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 22.92%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -1.53%. The volatility of related hype on Trinseo SA is about 11800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.37. Trinseo SA has 2.48 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.6, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Trinseo SA has a current ratio of 2.18, demonstrating that it is liquid and is capable to disburse its financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Trinseo to invest in growth at high rates of return. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trinseo SA to cross-verify your projections.Trinseo SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trinseo SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trinseo SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Trinseo SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trinseo SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NTIC | Northern Technologies | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.13 | 6.65 | (2.71) | 15.80 | |
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | (0.02) | 9 per month | 3.25 | 0.26 | 13.41 | (6.27) | 32.45 | |
| LOOP | Loop Industries | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.74 | (6.42) | 26.83 | |
| XPL | Solitario Exploration Royalty | 0.01 | 3 per month | 3.21 | 0.01 | 5.88 | (5.17) | 14.89 | |
| KBSX | FST Corp Ordinary | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.72 | (2.67) | 12.61 | |
| FMST | Foremost Lithium Resource | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.96 | (8.37) | 23.04 | |
| LITM | Snow Lake Resources | 0.07 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 10.77 | (9.70) | 23.48 | |
| GURE | Gulf Resources Common | (0.78) | 11 per month | 9.54 | 0.02 | 20.00 | (17.24) | 105.51 | |
| ELBM | Electra Battery Materials | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 9.47 | (9.52) | 23.01 | |
| ORGN | Origin Materials | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 7.14 | (8.70) | 22.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trinseo SA
For every potential investor in Trinseo, whether a beginner or expert, Trinseo SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trinseo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trinseo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trinseo SA's price trends.Trinseo SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trinseo SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trinseo SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trinseo SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trinseo SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trinseo SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trinseo SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trinseo SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trinseo SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trinseo SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trinseo SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trinseo SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trinseo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.72 | |||
| Variance | 76.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trinseo SA
The number of cover stories for Trinseo SA depends on current market conditions and Trinseo SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trinseo SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trinseo SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Trinseo SA Short Properties
Trinseo SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trinseo SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trinseo SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trinseo SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trinseo SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 209.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trinseo SA to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Trinseo Stock refer to our How to Trade Trinseo Stock guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Commodity Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinseo SA. If investors know Trinseo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinseo SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 0.03 | Earnings Share (11.57) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
The market value of Trinseo SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinseo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinseo SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinseo SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinseo SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinseo SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinseo SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trinseo SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinseo SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.