T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| TRZEX Fund | USD 7.65 0.13 1.73% |
T Rowe's Simple Regression reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.87.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as T Rowe Price historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. T Rowe's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 7.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.87 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TRZEX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T Rowe | T Rowe Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for T Rowe Price uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 6.32 and upside around 9.59 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1048 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3257 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0409 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.8697 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
Analyzing T Rowe's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in T Rowe's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.T Rowe Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as T Rowe within the Miscellaneous Region space and serve as useful points for comparison. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how T Rowe's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of T Rowe.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T Rowe mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade T Rowe.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.065 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.13 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
Assessing T Rowe's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting T Rowe's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
Story coverage around T Rowe Price often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.