TIAA Cref Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TRIPX Fund | USD 27.12 -0.85 -3.04% |
TIAA Cref International Equity's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref International Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 27.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50.When TIAA Cref International Equity prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TIAA Cref International Equity trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TIAA Cref observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for TIAA Cref International Equity are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref International Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 27.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.50 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TIAA Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TIAA Cref's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TIAA Cref | TIAA Cref Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for TIAA Cref International Equity uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 26.06 and upside near 28.14.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TIAA Cref mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TIAA Cref mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0064 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.5 |
Other Forecasting Options for TIAA Cref
Bollinger Bands applied to TIAA Mutual Fund price data measure how far TIAA has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to TIAA Cref's price data.TIAA Cref Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as TIAA Cref within the Foreign Large Blend space and serve as useful points for comparison. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across TIAA Cref's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TIAA Cref Market Strength Events
For investors tracking TIAA Cref International Equity, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell TIAA Cref International Equity.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 27.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.42 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.85 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.93 |
TIAA Cref Risk Indicators
Analyzing TIAA Cref's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for tiaa mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in TIAA Cref's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7524 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TIAA Cref
Story coverage around TIAA Cref International Equity often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.