TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TPYYX Fund | USD 7.63 0.09 1.19% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Touchstone Premium Yield. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Touchstone Premium Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 7.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.27.When Touchstone Premium Yield prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Touchstone Premium Yield trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Touchstone Premium Yield is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Touchstone Premium Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 7.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TOUCHSTONE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 6.31 and upside around 8.89 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0125 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0878 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM
TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in TOUCHSTONE often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM Related Equities
Sizing up TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM against these stocks within the Foreign Large Growth space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. When TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Touchstone Premium Yield.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM Risk Indicators
The analysis of TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9896 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TOUCHSTONE PREMIUM
A coverage review of Touchstone Premium Yield shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.