Timothy Plan Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TPHD Etf | USD 40.75 0.32 0.79% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Timothy Plan is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Plan High on the next trading day is expected to be 40.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.30.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Timothy Plan High forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Timothy Plan observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Timothy Plan High reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Plan High on the next trading day is expected to be 40.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.30 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timothy Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timothy Plan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Timothy Plan | Timothy Plan Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Timothy Plan's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 40.04 and upside near 41.46.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timothy Plan etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timothy Plan etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8171 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2217 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0054 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.3 |
Other Forecasting Options for Timothy Plan
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Timothy Etf price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Timothy occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Timothy Plan's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves.Timothy Plan Related Equities
Sizing up Timothy Plan against these stocks within the Mid-Cap Value space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether Timothy Plan earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timothy Plan Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Timothy Plan provides context for understanding etf momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Timothy Plan is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Timothy Plan High with a quantitative framework.
Timothy Plan Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Timothy Plan's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Timothy Plan's. Analyzing Timothy Plan's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5183 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6262 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.702 | |||
| Variance | 0.4928 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5267 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3921 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.52 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Timothy Plan
A coverage review of Timothy Plan High shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
More Resources for Timothy Etf Analysis
A clear view of Timothy Plan High comes from reviewing its financial structure and trends. The dataset reflects Timothy Plan's available reporting history.Historical Fundamental Analysis of Timothy Plan offers a historical basis for evaluating projection assumptions about Timothy Plan. Timothy Plan information on this page supports broader research rather than acting as a stand-alone signal. A thorough Timothy Plan review pairs this page with the quantitative and comparative resources listed below. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Comparing Timothy Plan's market price with book value reveals how market sentiment relates to accounting fundamentals. These complementary measures help build a more complete analytical foundation.
Timothy Plan intrinsic value attempts to capture underlying worth, separate from current trading levels. Inputs to the value estimate include reported fundamentals, market multiples, and growth assumptions.