TIMOTHY FIXED Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| TPFIX Fund | USD 9.19 0.01 0.11% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast shown here for TIMOTHY FIXED is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Timothy Fixed Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.44.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the TIMOTHY FIXED historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression reference page for TIMOTHY FIXED presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Timothy Fixed Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TIMOTHY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TIMOTHY FIXED's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TIMOTHY FIXED | TIMOTHY FIXED Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Timothy Fixed Income focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 8.95 and upside near 9.37.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TIMOTHY FIXED mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TIMOTHY FIXED mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8285 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4388 |
Other Forecasting Options for TIMOTHY FIXED
Regardless of investment experience, understanding TIMOTHY FIXED's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in TIMOTHY. Price charts for TIMOTHY Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.TIMOTHY FIXED Related Equities
The following equities are related to TIMOTHY FIXED within the Intermediate Core Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing TIMOTHY FIXED against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TIMOTHY FIXED Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for TIMOTHY FIXED give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading TIMOTHY FIXED is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.37 |
TIMOTHY FIXED Risk Indicators
A thorough review of TIMOTHY FIXED's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding TIMOTHY FIXED's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.155 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1425 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2076 | |||
| Variance | 0.0431 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.065 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0203 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TIMOTHY FIXED
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Timothy Fixed Income can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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