TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TMVIX Fund | USD 22.47 -0.27 -1.19% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Largemid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 22.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.57.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Timothy Largemid Cap Value forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timothy Largemid Cap Value on the next trading day is expected to be 22.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TIMOTHY Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP | TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Timothy Largemid Cap Value for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8508 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0047 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1428 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0062 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.5706 |
Other Forecasting Options for TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP
Regardless of investment experience, understanding TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in TIMOTHY. Price charts for TIMOTHY Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP Related Equities
The following equities are related to TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP within the Mid-Cap Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.27 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.56 |
TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP Risk Indicators
A thorough review of TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5827 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8462 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7707 | |||
| Variance | 0.594 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8147 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.716 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TIMOTHY LARGE/MID-CAP
Story coverage around Timothy Largemid Cap Value often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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