Tencent Music Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TME Stock | USD 9.93 -0.04 -0.40% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Tencent Music Entertainment, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Tencent Music's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tencent Music Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.79.When Tencent Music Entertainment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Tencent Music Entertainment trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Tencent Music observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Tencent Music is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tencent Music Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.46 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.79 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tencent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tencent Music's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tencent Music | Tencent Music Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Tencent Music's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tencent Music stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tencent Music stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1097 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0282 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.7893 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tencent Music
The autocorrelation structure of Tencent Music's daily returns reveals whether Tencent exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Tencent Stock price data.Tencent Music Related Equities
These related stocks within the Communication Services space give benchmarks for judging Tencent Music's results, margins, and growth trend. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Tencent Music's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tencent Music Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Tencent Music stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Tencent Music.
Tencent Music Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Tencent Music is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tencent Music's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Variance | 17.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tencent Music
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Tencent Music Entertainment can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Tencent Music Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Tencent Music Entertainment matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.3 B |