Trigon Metals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TM Stock | CAD 0.51 0.01 1.92% |
Trigon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Trigon Metals' stock price is slightly above 62. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Trigon, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.075 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.39 | Wall Street Target Price 1.433 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 274.891 |
Using Trigon Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trigon Metals from the perspective of Trigon Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trigon Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06. Trigon Metals after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Trigon |
Trigon Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trigon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trigon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trigon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trigon Metals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trigon Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trigon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trigon Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trigon Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trigon Metals | Trigon Metals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trigon Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trigon Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trigon Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.39, respectively. We have considered Trigon Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trigon Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trigon Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.6905 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0049 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0174 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0487 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0596 |
Predictive Modules for Trigon Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trigon Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trigon Metals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trigon Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trigon Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trigon Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trigon Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trigon Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trigon Metals' historical news coverage. Trigon Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 7.37, respectively. We have considered Trigon Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trigon Metals is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trigon Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trigon Metals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trigon Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trigon Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trigon Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.59 | 6.88 | 0.67 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.51 | 0.51 | 0.00 |
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Trigon Metals Hype Timeline
Trigon Metals is at this time traded for 0.51on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.67, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Trigon is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.59%. %. The volatility of related hype on Trigon Metals is about 88457.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.52. About 29.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.11. Trigon Metals last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2016. The entity had 1:5 split on the 6th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trigon Metals to cross-verify your projections.Trigon Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trigon Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trigon Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Trigon Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trigon Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPS | Canadian Premium Sand | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 13.33 | (13.64) | 34.29 | |
| SGU | Signature Resources | 0.00 | 7 per month | 5.36 | 0.17 | 15.38 | (12.50) | 36.41 | |
| MERG | Metal Energy Corp | 0.04 | 3 per month | 5.65 | 0.18 | 15.63 | (9.59) | 38.99 | |
| SNG | Silver Range Resources | (0.01) | 6 per month | 6.14 | 0.1 | 14.29 | (14.29) | 34.85 | |
| ELEF | Silver Elephant Mining | 0.01 | 7 per month | 3.48 | 0.04 | 9.38 | (6.45) | 29.23 | |
| STS | South Star Mining | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.50 | (7.14) | 22.53 | |
| RG | Romios Gold Resources | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 25.00 | (10.00) | 58.33 | |
| BRO | Barksdale Resources Corp | 0.01 | 5 per month | 3.36 | 0.17 | 13.33 | (6.25) | 39.58 | |
| ILI | Imagine Lithium | (0.01) | 3 per month | 9.53 | 0.08 | 33.33 | (25.00) | 58.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trigon Metals
For every potential investor in Trigon, whether a beginner or expert, Trigon Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trigon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trigon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trigon Metals' price trends.Trigon Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trigon Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trigon Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trigon Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trigon Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trigon Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trigon Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trigon Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trigon Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trigon Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trigon Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trigon Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trigon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.72 | |||
| Variance | 45.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 36.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trigon Metals
The number of cover stories for Trigon Metals depends on current market conditions and Trigon Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trigon Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trigon Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Trigon Stock Analysis
When running Trigon Metals' price analysis, check to measure Trigon Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trigon Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Trigon Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trigon Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trigon Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trigon Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.