Talon Metals Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| TLO Stock | CAD 5.95 0.51 7.89% |
Talon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Talon Metals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Talon Metals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Talon Metals fundamentals over time.
As of today The relative strength momentum indicator of Talon Metals' share price is above 80 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 86
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Year 1 | Wall Street Target Price 7.6333 |
Using Talon Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Talon Metals Corp from the perspective of Talon Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Talon Metals Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.79. Talon Metals after-hype prediction price | CAD 5.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Talon |
Talon Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Talon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Talon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Talon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Talon Metals Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Talon Metals Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Talon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Talon Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Talon Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Talon Metals | Talon Metals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Talon Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Talon Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Talon Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 122.49, respectively. We have considered Talon Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Talon Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Talon Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7156 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5933 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.8685 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.787 |
Predictive Modules for Talon Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Talon Metals Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Talon Metals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Talon Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Talon Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Talon Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Talon Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Talon Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Talon Metals' historical news coverage. Talon Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.29 and 600.79, respectively. We have considered Talon Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Talon Metals is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Talon Metals Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Talon Metals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Talon Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Talon Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Talon Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
15.69 | 116.28 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.95 | 5.79 | 2.69 |
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Talon Metals Hype Timeline
Talon Metals Corp is at this time traded for 5.95on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Talon is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -2.69%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 15.69%. The volatility of related hype on Talon Metals is about 5814000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.98. About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Talon Metals was at this time reported as 2.52. The company last dividend was issued on the December 29, 2010. Talon Metals Corp had 1:10 split on the 27th of January 2026. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Talon Metals to cross-verify your projections.Talon Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Talon Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Talon Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Talon Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Talon Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CTN | Centurion Minerals | 0.00 | 5 per month | 6.16 | 0.02 | 14.29 | (12.50) | 52.22 | |
| GSS | Gossan Resources | 0.00 | 1 per month | 9.39 | 0.07 | 33.33 | (25.00) | 83.33 | |
| DCOP | District Copper Corp | (0.01) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.09 | (15.38) | 36.67 | |
| COS | Coniagas Battery Metals | 0.01 | 5 per month | 8.43 | 0.03 | 23.08 | (18.18) | 78.20 | |
| AWE | Thunderstruck Resources | 0.00 | 1 per month | 5.20 | 0.16 | 16.67 | (11.11) | 51.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Talon Metals
For every potential investor in Talon, whether a beginner or expert, Talon Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Talon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Talon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Talon Metals' price trends.Talon Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Talon Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Talon Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Talon Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Talon Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Talon Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Talon Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Talon Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Talon Metals Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 74982.15 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.94) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.51) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 86.12 |
Talon Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Talon Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Talon Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting talon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 27.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 112.71 | |||
| Variance | 12703.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (41.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Talon Metals
The number of cover stories for Talon Metals depends on current market conditions and Talon Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Talon Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Talon Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Talon Metals Short Properties
Talon Metals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Talon Metals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Talon Metals Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Talon Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Talon Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 93.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in Talon Stock
Talon Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Talon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Talon with respect to the benefits of owning Talon Metals security.