TIAA Cref Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TIBEX Fund | USD 8.80 -0.05 -0.56% |
TIAA Cref's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref Intl Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.63.When TIAA Cref Intl Bond prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TIAA Cref Intl Bond trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TIAA Cref observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. TIAA Cref's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TIAA Cref Intl Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.63 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TIAA Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TIAA Cref's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TIAA Cref | TIAA Cref Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates TIAA Cref's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 8.62 on the downside to about 8.96 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TIAA Cref mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TIAA Cref mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0015 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0106 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.6254 |
Other Forecasting Options for TIAA Cref
Analyzing TIAA Cref's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in TIAA Cref's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.TIAA Cref Related Equities
Investors studying TIAA Cref often look at related stocks within the World Bond-USD Hedged space to gauge pricing and results. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for TIAA Cref's results. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TIAA Cref Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for TIAA Cref mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade TIAA Cref.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.91 |
TIAA Cref Risk Indicators
Assessing TIAA Cref's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting TIAA Cref's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1123 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1633 | |||
| Variance | 0.0267 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TIAA Cref
A coverage review of TIAA Cref Intl Bond shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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