International Tower Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

THM Stock  USD 1.98  -0.07  -3.41%   
International Tower Hill's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures derived from recent price data. This information is intended as reference material for analytical purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Tower Hill on the next trading day is expected to be 1.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.89.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past International Tower observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older International Tower Hill observations. The forecast reference data presented here for International Tower Hill reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Triple exponential smoothing for International Tower - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When International Tower prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in International Tower price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of International Tower Hill.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Tower Hill on the next trading day is expected to be 1.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.89 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Tower's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for International Tower Hill focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.02 on the downside to about 8.30 on the upside.
Market Value
1.98
1.92
Expected Value
8.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Tower stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Tower stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0316
MADMean absolute deviation0.1314
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0516
SAESum of the absolute errors7.8865
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past International Tower observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older International Tower Hill observations.

Other Forecasting Options for International Tower

Investors evaluating International at any level of experience must contend with the challenge of understanding International Tower's price movement. The presence of noise in International Stock price charts can significantly complicate investment decisions.

International Tower Related Equities

The following equities are related to International Tower within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing International Tower against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Tower Market Strength Events

For investors tracking International Tower Hill, market strength indicators offer a quantitative way to evaluate how the stock behaves under varying market conditions. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify the most favorable moments to trade International Tower.

International Tower Risk Indicators

Analyzing International Tower's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off associated with international stock. Forecasting International Tower's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for International Tower

Coverage intensity for International Tower Hill matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

International Tower Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to International Tower Hill matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding207.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.4 M

More Resources for International Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of International Tower Hill centers on its financial statements and observed trends. Ratios connect earnings, costs, and operational efficiency.