Timbercreek Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

TF Stock  CAD 6.65  -0.03  -0.45%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Timbercreek Financial Corp is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timbercreek Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.04.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Timbercreek Financial Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Timbercreek Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing projections for Timbercreek Financial Corp are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
Timbercreek Financial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Timbercreek Financial Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Timbercreek Financial prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timbercreek Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.04 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timbercreek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timbercreek Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Timbercreek Financial Corp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 5.40 and upside around 7.90 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
6.65
6.65
Expected Value
7.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timbercreek Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timbercreek Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4292
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0013
MADMean absolute deviation0.0507
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0074
SAESum of the absolute errors3.04
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Timbercreek Financial Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Timbercreek Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Timbercreek Financial

Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Timbercreek Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Timbercreek Financial's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Timbercreek Financial's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.

Timbercreek Financial Related Equities

Timbercreek Financial's market space within the Financials space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Looking at Timbercreek Financial's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. Tracking Timbercreek Financial's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Timbercreek Financial Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for Timbercreek Financial enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Timbercreek Financial Corp. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Timbercreek Financial Corp positions across market cycles.

Timbercreek Financial Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing Timbercreek Financial's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Timbercreek Financial's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Timbercreek Financial's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of timbercreek stock.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Timbercreek Financial

Story coverage around Timbercreek Financial Corp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

Timbercreek Financial Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Timbercreek Financial Corp is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding82.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments7.9 M

More Resources for Timbercreek Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in Timbercreek Stock

Financial ratios for Timbercreek Financial organize key financial data into structured relationships. They provide context across profit, cash flow, and overall value.