Timbercreek Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TF Stock | CAD 6.65 -0.03 -0.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Timbercreek Financial Corp is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timbercreek Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.04.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Timbercreek Financial Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Timbercreek Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing projections for Timbercreek Financial Corp are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Timbercreek Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.04 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timbercreek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timbercreek Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Timbercreek Financial Corp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 5.40 and upside around 7.90 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timbercreek Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timbercreek Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.4292 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0507 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Timbercreek Financial
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Timbercreek Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Timbercreek Financial's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Timbercreek Financial's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Timbercreek Financial Related Equities
Timbercreek Financial's market space within the Financials space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Looking at Timbercreek Financial's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. Tracking Timbercreek Financial's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timbercreek Financial Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Timbercreek Financial enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in Timbercreek Financial Corp. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Timbercreek Financial Corp positions across market cycles.
Timbercreek Financial Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Timbercreek Financial's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Timbercreek Financial's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Timbercreek Financial's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of timbercreek stock.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7076 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Timbercreek Financial
Story coverage around Timbercreek Financial Corp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Timbercreek Financial Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Timbercreek Financial Corp is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 82.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 M |
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Other Information on Investing in Timbercreek Stock
Financial ratios for Timbercreek Financial organize key financial data into structured relationships. They provide context across profit, cash flow, and overall value.