Atlassian Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TEAM Stock | USD 138.44 6.69 5.08% |
Atlassian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Atlassian Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Atlassian Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atlassian Corp fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength indicator of Atlassian Corp's share price is approaching 43. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Atlassian Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.722 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0537 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.8749 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.6306 | Wall Street Target Price 235.4147 |
Using Atlassian Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Atlassian Corp Plc from the perspective of Atlassian Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Atlassian Corp using Atlassian Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Atlassian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Atlassian Corp's stock price.
Atlassian Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Atlassian Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Atlassian Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Atlassian Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 178.0385 | Short Percent 0.0355 | Short Ratio 2.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.2 M | 50 Day MA 151.2688 |
Atlassian Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlassian Corp Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 138.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.33.Atlassian Corp Plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Atlassian Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Atlassian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Atlassian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Atlassian Corp Plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Atlassian Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Atlassian Corp.
Atlassian Corp Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Atlassian Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Atlassian Corp Plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Atlassian Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Atlassian Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Atlassian Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlassian Corp Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 138.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.33. Atlassian Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 138.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Atlassian | Build AI portfolio with Atlassian Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Atlassian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Atlassian Corp Plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Atlassian Corp trading at USD 138.44, that is roughly USD 0.0528 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Atlassian Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Atlassian Corp Plc options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Atlassian Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Atlassian Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Atlassian Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Atlassian Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Atlassian Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Atlassian Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Atlassian Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Atlassian. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Atlassian Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Atlassian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Atlassian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Atlassian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Atlassian Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlassian Corp Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 138.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33, mean absolute percentage error of 19.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atlassian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atlassian Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Atlassian Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Atlassian Corp | Atlassian Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Atlassian Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Atlassian Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atlassian Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.86 and 141.39, respectively. We have considered Atlassian Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atlassian Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atlassian Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.513 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0223 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 196.3291 |
Predictive Modules for Atlassian Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atlassian Corp Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Atlassian Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Atlassian Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Atlassian Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Atlassian Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Atlassian Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Atlassian Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Atlassian Corp's historical news coverage. Atlassian Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 135.68 and 141.20, respectively. We have considered Atlassian Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Atlassian Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Atlassian Corp Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Atlassian Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Atlassian Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atlassian Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Atlassian Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 0.23 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
138.44 | 138.44 | 0.00 |
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Atlassian Corp Hype Timeline
Atlassian Corp Plc is at this time traded for 138.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Atlassian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 25.87%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Atlassian Corp is about 292.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 138.21. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.35. Atlassian Corp Plc recorded a loss per share of 0.7. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 9:8 split on the March 5, 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atlassian Corp to cross-verify your projections.Atlassian Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Atlassian Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Atlassian Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Atlassian Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Atlassian Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FICO | Fair Isaac | 0.81 | 8 per month | 2.13 | (0.03) | 3.93 | (3.16) | 9.68 | |
| XYZ | Block Inc | 2.47 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.96 | (5.03) | 14.15 | |
| UI | Ubiquiti Networks | (6.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.19 | (4.07) | 22.82 | |
| TTWO | Take Two Interactive Software | 2.47 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.27 | (1.73) | 9.50 | |
| DDOG | Datadog | (2.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.00 | (3.52) | 32.62 | |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | 11.42 | 9 per month | 2.76 | 0 | 3.91 | (4.47) | 14.52 | |
| EA | Electronic Arts | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.31 | (0.23) | 0.80 | |
| ZS | Zscaler | (10.33) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.83 | (4.14) | 16.56 | |
| WDAY | Workday | (10.67) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.03 | (4.02) | 11.69 | |
| GRMN | Garmin | 2.47 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.07 | (2.42) | 12.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Atlassian Corp
For every potential investor in Atlassian, whether a beginner or expert, Atlassian Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atlassian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atlassian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atlassian Corp's price trends.Atlassian Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atlassian Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atlassian Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atlassian Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Atlassian Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atlassian Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atlassian Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atlassian Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atlassian Corp Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 283166.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.03882 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 135.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 136.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 6.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 6.69 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.12 |
Atlassian Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Atlassian Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atlassian Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atlassian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Variance | 7.13 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Atlassian Corp
The number of cover stories for Atlassian Corp depends on current market conditions and Atlassian Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Atlassian Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Atlassian Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Atlassian Corp Short Properties
Atlassian Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Atlassian Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Atlassian Corp Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Atlassian Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atlassian Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 261.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atlassian Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atlassian Corp. If investors know Atlassian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atlassian Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.722 | Earnings Share (0.70) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.206 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Atlassian Corp Plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atlassian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atlassian Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atlassian Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atlassian Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atlassian Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atlassian Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Atlassian Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atlassian Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.