Tcm Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TCMSX Fund  USD 51.41  0.10  0.19%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tcm Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 51.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.70. Tcm Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Tcm Small's mutual fund price is slightly above 68. This usually implies that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tcm, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Tcm Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tcm Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Tcm Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tcm Small Cap from the perspective of Tcm Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tcm Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 51.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.70.

Tcm Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 51.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tcm Small to cross-verify your projections.

Tcm Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tcm price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tcm using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tcm charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Tcm Small works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Tcm Small Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tcm Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 51.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tcm Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tcm Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tcm Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tcm SmallTcm Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tcm Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tcm Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tcm Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.29 and 52.95, respectively. We have considered Tcm Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
51.41
51.62
Expected Value
52.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tcm Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tcm Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0623
MADMean absolute deviation0.5034
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors29.7034
When Tcm Small Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Tcm Small Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Tcm Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Tcm Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tcm Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tcm Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
50.0851.4152.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.2754.3855.71
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
45.2848.6452.00
Details

Tcm Small After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Tcm Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tcm Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Tcm Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Tcm Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Tcm Small's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tcm Small's historical news coverage. Tcm Small's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.08 and 52.74, respectively. We have considered Tcm Small's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
51.41
51.41
After-hype Price
52.74
Upside
Tcm Small is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tcm Small Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Tcm Small Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Tcm Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tcm Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tcm Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
1.33
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
51.41
51.41
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Tcm Small Hype Timeline

Tcm Small Cap is at this time traded for 51.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Tcm is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tcm Small is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tcm Small to cross-verify your projections.

Tcm Small Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Tcm Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tcm Small's future price movements. Getting to know how Tcm Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tcm Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CSMVXCentury Small Cap 0.00 0 per month 1.21 (0.03) 2.27 (2.04) 5.21 
RYPRXRoyce Premier Fund 0.00 0 per month 0.41  0.14  2.54 (1.41) 15.85 
RYPNXRoyce Opportunity Fund 0.00 0 per month 1.18  0.04  2.43 (2.58) 5.40 
FEVIXFirst Eagle Value 0.00 0 per month 1.55  0.03  1.30 (0.94) 18.28 
FSLVXFidelity Stock Selector 0.00 0 per month 0.37  0.09  1.36 (1.05) 7.57 
ILLLXTransamerica Capital Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.64 (3.40) 7.94 
USWGXWorld Growth Fund 0.00 0 per month 0.36  0.10  1.13 (1.15) 12.37 
CIPSXChamplain Small Pany 0.00 0 per month 0.96 (0.04) 2.14 (1.74) 4.30 
NWKCXNationwide Geneva Small 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.02  2.19 (1.49) 5.02 
GLPIXGoldman Sachs Mlp 0.00 0 per month 0.40  0.04  1.18 (0.87) 3.01 

Other Forecasting Options for Tcm Small

For every potential investor in Tcm, whether a beginner or expert, Tcm Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tcm Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tcm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tcm Small's price trends.

Tcm Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tcm Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tcm Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tcm Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tcm Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tcm Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tcm Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tcm Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Tcm Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tcm Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tcm Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tcm Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tcm mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Tcm Small

The number of cover stories for Tcm Small depends on current market conditions and Tcm Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tcm Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tcm Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Tcm Mutual Fund

Tcm Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tcm Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tcm with respect to the benefits of owning Tcm Small security.
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