Transcontinental Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TCI Stock  USD 52.73  0.74  1.42%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transcontinental Realty Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 52.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51. Transcontinental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Transcontinental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Transcontinental's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Transcontinental's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Transcontinental Realty Investors, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Transcontinental's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.59)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.079
Using Transcontinental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Transcontinental Realty Investors from the perspective of Transcontinental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transcontinental Realty Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 52.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51.

Transcontinental after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 53.1  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transcontinental to cross-verify your projections.

Transcontinental Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Transcontinental price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Transcontinental using various technical indicators. When you analyze Transcontinental charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Transcontinental works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Transcontinental Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Transcontinental Realty Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 52.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.21, mean absolute percentage error of 2.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Transcontinental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Transcontinental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Transcontinental Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TranscontinentalTranscontinental Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Transcontinental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Transcontinental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Transcontinental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.49 and 55.92, respectively. We have considered Transcontinental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.73
52.71
Expected Value
55.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Transcontinental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Transcontinental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.167
MADMean absolute deviation1.2085
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0236
SAESum of the absolute errors72.5088
When Transcontinental Realty Investors prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Transcontinental Realty Investors trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Transcontinental observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Transcontinental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transcontinental Realty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Transcontinental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.8853.1056.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.4143.6358.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.7152.4762.23
Details

Transcontinental After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Transcontinental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Transcontinental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Transcontinental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Transcontinental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Transcontinental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Transcontinental's historical news coverage. Transcontinental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.88 and 56.32, respectively. We have considered Transcontinental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
52.73
53.10
After-hype Price
56.32
Upside
Transcontinental is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Transcontinental Realty is based on 3 months time horizon.

Transcontinental Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Transcontinental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Transcontinental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Transcontinental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
3.22
  0.37 
  0.02 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
52.73
53.10
0.70 
259.68  
Notes

Transcontinental Hype Timeline

On the 24th of January Transcontinental Realty is traded for 52.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Transcontinental is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 53.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.7%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Transcontinental is about 4666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.75. The company reported the last year's revenue of 44.76 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.66 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.8 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transcontinental to cross-verify your projections.

Transcontinental Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Transcontinental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Transcontinental's future price movements. Getting to know how Transcontinental's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Transcontinental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MLPMaui Land Pineapple 0.47 9 per month 1.79  0.02  3.73 (3.48) 13.31 
SEGSeaport Entertainment Group(0.18)7 per month 0.00 (0.17) 2.08 (4.01) 9.38 
FRPHFrp Holdings Ord 0.45 9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.27 (2.90) 8.28 
FPHFive Point Holdings 1.24 12 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.56 (2.83) 6.59 
SVCService Properties Trust 0.08 9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.49 (5.29) 17.15 
RMRRMR Group 0.03 9 per month 1.25  0.04  2.67 (2.17) 9.83 
NREFNexpoint Real Estate 0.11 9 per month 1.35  0.07  2.44 (2.47) 8.26 
CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust 0.04 6 per month 1.15  0.19  2.83 (1.83) 8.25 
ILPTIndustrial Logistics Properties 0.08 7 per month 3.04  0.01  4.70 (5.49) 13.68 
NENNew England Realty(1.63)7 per month 0.00 (0.15) 2.26 (2.46) 6.28 

Other Forecasting Options for Transcontinental

For every potential investor in Transcontinental, whether a beginner or expert, Transcontinental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Transcontinental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Transcontinental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Transcontinental's price trends.

Transcontinental Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Transcontinental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Transcontinental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Transcontinental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Transcontinental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Transcontinental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Transcontinental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Transcontinental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Transcontinental Realty Investors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Transcontinental Risk Indicators

The analysis of Transcontinental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Transcontinental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting transcontinental stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Transcontinental

The number of cover stories for Transcontinental depends on current market conditions and Transcontinental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Transcontinental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Transcontinental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Transcontinental Short Properties

Transcontinental's future price predictability will typically decrease when Transcontinental's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Transcontinental Realty Investors often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Transcontinental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Transcontinental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding8.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments99.7 M
When determining whether Transcontinental Realty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Transcontinental's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Transcontinental Realty Investors Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Transcontinental Realty Investors Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transcontinental to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Real Estate Management & Development space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Transcontinental. If investors know Transcontinental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Transcontinental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.59)
Earnings Share
0.65
Revenue Per Share
5.634
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.079
Return On Assets
(0)
The market value of Transcontinental Realty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Transcontinental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Transcontinental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Transcontinental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Transcontinental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Transcontinental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Transcontinental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Transcontinental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Transcontinental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.