TuanChe ADR Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

TC Stock  USD 10.43  0.13  1.26%   
TuanChe ADR's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for TuanChe ADR. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for TuanChe ADR.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TuanChe ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 10.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.04.When TuanChe ADR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TuanChe ADR trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TuanChe ADR observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for TuanChe ADR are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for TuanChe ADR works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TuanChe ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 10.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.14 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.04 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TuanChe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TuanChe ADR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for TuanChe ADR uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
10.43
10.48
Expected Value
14.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TuanChe ADR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TuanChe ADR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0058
MADMean absolute deviation0.221
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors13.04
When TuanChe ADR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TuanChe ADR trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TuanChe ADR observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for TuanChe ADR

Bollinger Bands applied to TuanChe Stock price data measure how far TuanChe has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to TuanChe ADR's price data. On-balance volume for TuanChe Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in TuanChe. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for TuanChe ADR's.

TuanChe ADR Related Equities

These related stocks within the Communication Services space give benchmarks for judging TuanChe ADR's results, margins, and growth trend. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for TuanChe ADR's results. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TuanChe ADR Market Strength Events

For investors tracking TuanChe ADR, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around TuanChe ADR positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in TuanChe ADR. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around TuanChe ADR.

TuanChe ADR Risk Indicators

Analyzing TuanChe ADR's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for tuanche stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in TuanChe ADR's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing TuanChe ADR's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in TuanChe ADR's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for TuanChe ADR

Story coverage around TuanChe ADR often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

TuanChe ADR Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for TuanChe ADR is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments9.1 M

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