Taitron Components Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TAIT Stock | USD 1.53 -0.06 -3.77% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Taitron Components is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Taitron Components Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 1.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Taitron Components Incorporated forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Taitron Components observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Taitron Components presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Taitron Components Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 1.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0025 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Taitron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Taitron Components' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Taitron Components | Taitron Components Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Taitron Components Incorporated uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Taitron Components stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Taitron Components stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2805 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0076 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0371 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2278 |
Other Forecasting Options for Taitron Components
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Taitron Components' price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Taitron. Price charts for Taitron Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Taitron Components Related Equities
The following equities are related to Taitron Components within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Taitron Components against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Taitron Components Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Taitron Components give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Taitron Components is likely to be most rewarding.
Taitron Components Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Taitron Components' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Taitron Components'.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Variance | 9.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Taitron Components
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Taitron Components Incorporated can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Taitron Components Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Taitron Components Incorporated is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.4 M |
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