SCHWAB TARGET Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SWYBX Fund | USD 13.39 -0.07 -0.52% |
SCHWAB TARGET's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Schwab Target 2015 on the next trading day is expected to be 13.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14.When Schwab Target 2015 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Schwab Target 2015 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent SCHWAB TARGET observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for SCHWAB TARGET are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Schwab Target 2015 on the next trading day is expected to be 13.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0021 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SCHWAB Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SCHWAB TARGET's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Schwab Target 2015 uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 13.04 on the downside to about 13.70 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SCHWAB TARGET mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SCHWAB TARGET mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0094 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0357 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.1449 |
Other Forecasting Options for SCHWAB TARGET
Relative Strength Index values for SCHWAB measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in SCHWAB TARGET's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of SCHWAB Mutual Fund daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.SCHWAB TARGET Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of SCHWAB TARGET within the Target-Date 2015 space and offer context for ranking and strength. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag SCHWAB TARGET across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SCHWAB TARGET Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how SCHWAB TARGET mutual fund is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Schwab Target 2015. These signals help validate or refine position timing for SCHWAB TARGET.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.23 |
SCHWAB TARGET Risk Indicators
The analysis of SCHWAB TARGET's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with SCHWAB TARGET's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of SCHWAB TARGET's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2511 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3263 | |||
| Variance | 0.1065 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SCHWAB TARGET
Story coverage around Schwab Target 2015 often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.