Stanley Black Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SWK Stock  USD 69.04  -0.01  -0.01%   
Stanley Black's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stanley Black Decker on the next trading day is expected to be 68.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.26.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Stanley Black observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Stanley Black Decker observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Stanley Black is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.
Triple exponential smoothing for Stanley Black - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Stanley Black prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Stanley Black price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Stanley Black Decker.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stanley Black Decker on the next trading day is expected to be 68.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.98 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.26 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stanley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stanley Black's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Stanley Black Decker focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 66.14 and upside near 70.48.
Market Value
69.04
68.31
Expected Value
70.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stanley Black stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stanley Black stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0077
MADMean absolute deviation1.3265
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors78.2624
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Stanley Black observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Stanley Black Decker observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Stanley Black

For any investor considering Stanley, Stanley Black's price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in Stanley Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.

Stanley Black Related Equities

The following equities are related to Stanley Black within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Stanley Black against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Stanley Black Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Stanley Black stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for Stanley Black Decker.

Stanley Black Risk Indicators

The analysis of Stanley Black's basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in Stanley Black's investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Stanley Black

Coverage intensity for Stanley Black Decker matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Stanley Black Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Stanley Black Decker matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding152.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments280.1 M

More Resources for Stanley Stock Analysis

A structured review of Stanley Black Decker begins with its financial statements and overall trends. These ratios help explain how earnings, efficiency, and value creation are connected. Values are derived from Stanley Black's disclosed financial information.