Swedbank Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SWDBY Stock | USD 36.52 0.13 0.36% |
Swedbank's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swedbank AB on the next trading day is expected to be 36.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.82.When Swedbank AB prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Swedbank AB trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Swedbank observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for Swedbank are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swedbank AB on the next trading day is expected to be 36.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.33 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swedbank Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swedbank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Swedbank | Swedbank Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Swedbank AB focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swedbank pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swedbank pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0645 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4469 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.8159 |
Other Forecasting Options for Swedbank
For investors of all experience levels considering Swedbank, understanding Swedbank's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Swedbank Pink Sheet price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Swedbank Related Equities
The following equities are related to Swedbank within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Swedbank against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swedbank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Swedbank pink sheet provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Swedbank.
Swedbank Risk Indicators
Assessing Swedbank's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Swedbank's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.20 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Swedbank
A coverage review of Swedbank AB shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Other Information on Investing in Swedbank Pink Sheet
Financial ratios for Swedbank show relationships between important financial metrics. They provide context across profit, cash flow, and overall value. The format ensures financial data remains comparable across time periods.