SCHWAB MARKETTRACK Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SWCGX Fund | USD 15.56 -0.04 -0.26% |
SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Schwab Markettrack Servative on the next trading day is expected to be 15.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.93.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Schwab Markettrack Servative price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of SCHWAB MARKETTRACK. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's Simple Moving Average reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Schwab Markettrack Servative on the next trading day is expected to be 15.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0044 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.93 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SCHWAB Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SCHWAB MARKETTRACK | SCHWAB MARKETTRACK Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SCHWAB MARKETTRACK mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SCHWAB MARKETTRACK mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.8472 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0028 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0488 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0031 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for SCHWAB MARKETTRACK
Analyzing SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.SCHWAB MARKETTRACK Related Equities
Sizing up SCHWAB MARKETTRACK against these stocks within the Allocation--30% to 50% Equity space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's peer group. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SCHWAB MARKETTRACK Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SCHWAB MARKETTRACK mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade SCHWAB MARKETTRACK.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.7 |
SCHWAB MARKETTRACK Risk Indicators
Assessing SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting SCHWAB MARKETTRACK's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2936 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3891 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4087 | |||
| Variance | 0.167 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2111 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1514 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SCHWAB MARKETTRACK
A coverage review of Schwab Markettrack Servative shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.