SMALL-CAP VALUE Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SVPIX Fund | USD 117.19 0.45 0.39% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for SMALL-CAP VALUE is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Double Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Small Cap Value Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 116.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.88.When Small Cap Value Profund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Small Cap Value Profund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent SMALL-CAP VALUE observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for SMALL-CAP VALUE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Small Cap Value Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 116.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.80 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.88 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SMALL-CAP Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SMALL-CAP VALUE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates SMALL-CAP VALUE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 115.68 on the downside to about 117.88 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SMALL-CAP VALUE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SMALL-CAP VALUE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2281 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0488 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.8777 |
Other Forecasting Options for SMALL-CAP VALUE
The distribution of SMALL-CAP VALUE's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in SMALL-CAP VALUE's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of SMALL-CAP VALUE's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in SMALL-CAP.SMALL-CAP VALUE Related Equities
These stocks within the Small Value space are often compared to SMALL-CAP VALUE by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how SMALL-CAP VALUE's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SMALL-CAP VALUE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SMALL-CAP VALUE give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Small Cap Value Profund. Market strength analysis for Small Cap Value Profund works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For SMALL-CAP VALUE, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 117.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 117.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.23 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.45 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.75 |
SMALL-CAP VALUE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of SMALL-CAP VALUE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in SMALL-CAP VALUE's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of SMALL-CAP VALUE's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in SMALL-CAP VALUE's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.822 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SMALL-CAP VALUE
A coverage review of Small Cap Value Profund shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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