Suncor Energy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SU Stock | CAD 88.23 1.53 1.76% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Suncor Energy is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Suncor Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 89.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.01.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Suncor Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Suncor Energy observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing projections for Suncor Energy are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Suncor Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 89.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.94 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.01 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Suncor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Suncor Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Suncor Energy | Suncor Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Suncor Energy uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Suncor Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Suncor Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0534 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7835 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.0104 |
Other Forecasting Options for Suncor Energy
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Suncor Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Suncor Energy's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Suncor Energy's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Suncor Energy Related Equities
Sizing up Suncor Energy against these stocks within the Energy space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Suncor Energy's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Suncor Energy often signals structural advantages or weaknesses. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Suncor Energy Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Suncor Energy enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in Suncor Energy. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Suncor Energy positions across market cycles.
Suncor Energy Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Suncor Energy's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Suncor Energy's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Suncor Energy's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of suncor stock.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5724 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3276 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Suncor Energy
Story coverage around Suncor Energy often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Suncor Energy Short Properties
A short-interest review of Suncor Energy provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.6 B |
More Resources for Suncor Stock Analysis
A baseline understanding of Suncor Energy is formed through its financial statements and trends. These metrics are based on Suncor Energy's reported financial results.Historical Fundamental Analysis of Suncor Energy can be used to cross-verify projections for Suncor Energy. For more information on Suncor Stock please use our How to Invest in Suncor Energy overview. It covers the key aspects of trading Suncor Stock.At P/E 12.98 and ROE 13.2%, Suncor Energy analysis should be read alongside other portfolio and risk tools before adjusting capital allocation. Within the Energy space, these metrics give the peer comparison tools below a concrete starting point for relative analysis. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.