Seagate Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

STX Stock  USD 287.54  12.15  4.41%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 298.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 742.53. Seagate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Seagate Technology's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Seagate Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Seagate Technology PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Seagate Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Seagate Technology PLC from the perspective of Seagate Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 298.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 742.53.

Seagate Technology after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 287.54  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Seagate Technology to cross-verify your projections.

Seagate Technology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Seagate price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Seagate using various technical indicators. When you analyze Seagate charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Seagate Technology price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Seagate Technology Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 298.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.17, mean absolute percentage error of 235.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 742.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seagate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seagate Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Seagate Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Seagate TechnologySeagate Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Seagate Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Seagate Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Seagate Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 294.27 and 302.98, respectively. We have considered Seagate Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
287.54
294.27
Downside
298.62
Expected Value
302.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seagate Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seagate Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.5732
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation12.1726
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0471
SAESum of the absolute errors742.5308
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Seagate Technology PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Seagate Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Seagate Technology PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Seagate Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
283.18287.54291.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
225.21229.57316.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
244.72276.27307.82
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Seagate Technology

For every potential investor in Seagate, whether a beginner or expert, Seagate Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Seagate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Seagate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Seagate Technology's price trends.

Seagate Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Seagate Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Seagate Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Seagate Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Seagate Technology PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Seagate Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Seagate Technology's current price.

Seagate Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Seagate Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Seagate Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Seagate Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Seagate Technology PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Seagate Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Seagate Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Seagate Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting seagate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Seagate Stock Analysis

When running Seagate Technology's price analysis, check to measure Seagate Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Seagate Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Seagate Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Seagate Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Seagate Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Seagate Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.