Seagate Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

STX Stock  USD 406.77  -14.32  -3.40%   
Seagate Technology PLC's Simple Regression forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 434.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Seagate Technology PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. The Simple Regression projections for Seagate Technology PLC are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Seagate Technology price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 434.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 , mean absolute percentage error of 1,309 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seagate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seagate Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Seagate Technology  Seagate Technology Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Seagate Technology PLC uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
406.77
429.16
Downside
434.13
Expected Value
439.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seagate Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seagate Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.1255
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation29.9343
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0806
SAESum of the absolute errors1855.9241
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Seagate Technology PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Other Forecasting Options for Seagate Technology

The price trajectory of Seagate is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Seagate Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.

Seagate Technology Related Equities

The following equities are related to Seagate Technology within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Seagate Technology against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Seagate Technology Market Strength Events

Understanding the market strength of Seagate Technology stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Seagate Technology PLC with greater precision.

Seagate Technology Risk Indicators

Reviewing Seagate Technology's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Seagate Technology's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Seagate Technology

A coverage review of Seagate Technology PLC helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Seagate Technology Short Properties

A short-interest review of Seagate Technology PLC helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding217 M
Cash And Short Term Investments891 M

More Resources for Seagate Stock Analysis

Reviewing Seagate Technology PLC commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Seagate Technology PLC Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Seagate Technology PLC Stock: