Seagate Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| STX Stock | USD 406.77 -14.32 -3.40% |
Seagate Technology PLC's Simple Regression forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 434.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Seagate Technology PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. The Simple Regression projections for Seagate Technology PLC are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Seagate Technology PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 434.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 , mean absolute percentage error of 1,309 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Seagate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Seagate Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Seagate Technology | Seagate Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Seagate Technology PLC uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Seagate Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Seagate Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 127.1255 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 29.9343 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0806 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1855.9241 |
Other Forecasting Options for Seagate Technology
The price trajectory of Seagate is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Seagate Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Seagate Technology Related Equities
The following equities are related to Seagate Technology within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Seagate Technology against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Seagate Technology Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Seagate Technology stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Seagate Technology PLC with greater precision.
| Accumulation Distribution | 159622.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.81 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 413.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 411.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -14.32 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -14.32 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.87 |
Seagate Technology Risk Indicators
Reviewing Seagate Technology's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Seagate Technology's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.89 | |||
| Variance | 23.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Seagate Technology
A coverage review of Seagate Technology PLC helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Seagate Technology Short Properties
A short-interest review of Seagate Technology PLC helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 217 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 891 M |