MicroStrategy Incorporated Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| STRF Stock | 97.98 0.58 0.60% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MicroStrategy Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 from the perspective of MicroStrategy Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MicroStrategy Incorporated using MicroStrategy Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MicroStrategy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MicroStrategy Incorporated's stock price.
MicroStrategy Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.49 |
MicroStrategy Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MicroStrategy Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MicroStrategy Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when MicroStrategy Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 on the next trading day is expected to be 97.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.98. MicroStrategy Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 97.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MicroStrategy |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MicroStrategy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0306% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With MicroStrategy Incorporated trading at USD 97.98, that is roughly USD 0.03 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MicroStrategy Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 options at the current volatility level of 0.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MicroStrategy Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MicroStrategy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MicroStrategy using various technical indicators. When you analyze MicroStrategy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 on the next trading day is expected to be 97.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41, mean absolute percentage error of 4.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MicroStrategy Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MicroStrategy Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MicroStrategy Incorporated Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
MicroStrategy Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MicroStrategy Incorporated's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MicroStrategy Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.96 and 99.99, respectively. We have considered MicroStrategy Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MicroStrategy Incorporated pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MicroStrategy Incorporated pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4065 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 82.9841 |
Predictive Modules for MicroStrategy Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MicroStrategy Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MicroStrategy Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of MicroStrategy Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MicroStrategy Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of MicroStrategy Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MicroStrategy Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MicroStrategy Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MicroStrategy Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
97.98 | 97.98 | 0.00 |
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MicroStrategy Incorporated Hype Timeline
MicroStrategy Incorporated is at this time traded for 97.98. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.46. MicroStrategy is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on MicroStrategy Incorporated is about 56.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 97.52. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.MicroStrategy Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MicroStrategy Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MicroStrategy Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how MicroStrategy Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MicroStrategy Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BRRAY | Barloworld Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.11 | 0.14 | 17.76 | (10.94) | 120.98 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.93 | (1.09) | 12.28 | |
| ABHYX | High Yield Municipal Fund | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.23 | (0.12) | 0.92 | |
| RRTLX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.57 | (0.49) | 3.30 | |
| KNF | Knife River | 1.86 | 8 per month | 2.25 | 0.12 | 5.34 | (3.57) | 16.62 | |
| KLKNF | Klckner Co SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 3.58 | 0.00 | 49.18 | |
| GBEN | Global Resource Ener | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QUAYX | Ab Small Cap | (38.82) | 6 per month | 1.67 | (0.02) | 2.03 | (2.41) | 6.54 | |
| SEGG | Lottery | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 28.00 | (16.76) | 101.30 | |
| KMX | CarMax Inc | 1.28 | 9 per month | 5.04 | 0.05 | 5.33 | (3.22) | 24.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for MicroStrategy Incorporated
For every potential investor in MicroStrategy, whether a beginner or expert, MicroStrategy Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MicroStrategy Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MicroStrategy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MicroStrategy Incorporated's price trends.MicroStrategy Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MicroStrategy Incorporated pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MicroStrategy Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MicroStrategy Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MicroStrategy Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MicroStrategy Incorporated pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MicroStrategy Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MicroStrategy Incorporated pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify MicroStrategy Incorporated 1000 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MicroStrategy Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of MicroStrategy Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MicroStrategy Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microstrategy pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Variance | 3.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MicroStrategy Incorporated
The number of cover stories for MicroStrategy Incorporated depends on current market conditions and MicroStrategy Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MicroStrategy Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MicroStrategy Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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