StoneCo Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| STNE Stock | USD 13.98 -0.08 -0.57% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for StoneCo. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of StoneCo on the next trading day is expected to be 13.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.10.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past StoneCo observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older StoneCo observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for StoneCo is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of StoneCo on the next trading day is expected to be 13.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.38 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.10 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict StoneCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that StoneCo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates StoneCo's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of StoneCo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent StoneCo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0309 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3915 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0255 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.1012 |
Other Forecasting Options for StoneCo
StoneCo's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in StoneCo often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of StoneCo Stock data examines overnight jumps between StoneCo's closing and opening prices.StoneCo Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Financials space can help frame StoneCo's pricing and running costs in context. Looking at StoneCo's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
StoneCo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how StoneCo stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading StoneCo. These indicators can identify periods when trading StoneCo may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
StoneCo Risk Indicators
The analysis of StoneCo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding StoneCo's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of StoneCo's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.74 | |||
| Variance | 14.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for StoneCo
The amount of media and story coverage tied to StoneCo can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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StoneCo Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to StoneCo matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 273.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 B |