Steel Dynamics Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| STLD Stock | USD 168.76 -3.87 -2.24% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Steel Dynamics is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Steel Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 169.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.98.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Steel Dynamics forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Steel Dynamics observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Steel Dynamics are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Steel Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 169.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.28 , mean absolute percentage error of 18.14 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 196.98 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Steel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Steel Dynamics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Steel Dynamics | Steel Dynamics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Steel Dynamics for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Steel Dynamics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Steel Dynamics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1708 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0916 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2829 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 196.9767 |
Other Forecasting Options for Steel Dynamics
For both new and experienced investors in Steel, the ability to analyze Steel Dynamics' price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Steel Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Steel Dynamics Related Equities
The following equities are related to Steel Dynamics within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Steel Dynamics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Steel Dynamics Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Steel Dynamics helps investors understand the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Steel Dynamics for maximum return potential.
Steel Dynamics Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Steel Dynamics' risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Steel Dynamics' allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Steel Dynamics
Coverage intensity for Steel Dynamics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Steel Dynamics Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Steel Dynamics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 148.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 769.9 M |