SunOpta Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| STKL Stock | USD 6.47 -0.01 -0.15% |
This page documents Simple Regression forecast output for SunOpta as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below. Key metrics including projected price and mean absolute deviation are summarized below.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of SunOpta on the next trading day is expected to be 7.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.91.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as SunOpta historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. SunOpta's Simple Regression reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of SunOpta on the next trading day is expected to be 7.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SunOpta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SunOpta's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SunOpta | SunOpta Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting SunOpta for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 2.53 and upside around 11.95 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SunOpta stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SunOpta stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4365 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3857 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0698 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.914 |
Other Forecasting Options for SunOpta
MACD analysis of SunOpta tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of SunOpta's price. Many SunOpta's traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for SunOpta, accounting for gaps.SunOpta Related Equities
Checking SunOpta against related firms within the Consumer Staples space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking SunOpta against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SunOpta Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SunOpta assess how the stock responds to changes in investor sentiment. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit SunOpta positions. Market strength signals help investors time SunOpta positions with greater precision and confidence.
SunOpta Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for SunOpta is a critical component of accurate price forecasting. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with SunOpta's allows investors to make better-informed decisions. Understanding SunOpta's risk indicators is a fundamental step in managing investment exposure responsibly.
| Mean Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0789 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.55 | |||
| Variance | 20.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0062 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SunOpta
The amount of media and story coverage tied to SunOpta can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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SunOpta Short Properties
Short-interest signals around SunOpta can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 169 K |