SHORT-TERM INCOME Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| STCCX Fund | USD 12.09 -0.03 -0.25% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Short Term Income Fund is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Short Term Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.40.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Short Term Income Fund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent SHORT-TERM INCOME observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Short Term Income Fund are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Short Term Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SHORT-TERM Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SHORT-TERM INCOME's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SHORT-TERM INCOME | SHORT-TERM INCOME Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Short Term Income Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SHORT-TERM INCOME mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SHORT-TERM INCOME mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.1268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0067 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 5.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.4 |
Other Forecasting Options for SHORT-TERM INCOME
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering SHORT-TERM needs to understand the dynamics of SHORT-TERM INCOME's price movement. Price charts for SHORT-TERM Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.SHORT-TERM INCOME Related Equities
The following equities are related to SHORT-TERM INCOME within the Short-Term Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing SHORT-TERM INCOME against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SHORT-TERM INCOME Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for SHORT-TERM INCOME enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Short Term Income Fund.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.18 |
SHORT-TERM INCOME Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing SHORT-TERM INCOME's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with SHORT-TERM INCOME's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0524 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.083 | |||
| Variance | 0.0069 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0169 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0049 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.10 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SHORT-TERM INCOME
Coverage intensity for Short Term Income Fund matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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