Sasol Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| SSL Stock | USD 12.89 0.12 0.94% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecast shown here for Sasol is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Sasol on the next trading day is expected to be 12.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.09.The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Sasol. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Sasol and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions This 4 Period Moving Average reference page for Sasol presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Sasol on the next trading day is expected to be 12.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.30 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.09 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sasol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sasol's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sasol | Sasol Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Sasol's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sasol stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sasol stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3946 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2716 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4325 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.05 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.0875 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sasol
The distribution of Sasol's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Sasol's chart that simple price charts miss.Sasol Related Equities
These stocks are related to Sasol within the Materials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Checking Sasol against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging Sasol's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sasol Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Sasol give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Sasol.
Sasol Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Sasol's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Sasol's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.06 | |||
| Variance | 16.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sasol
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Sasol can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Sasol Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Sasol matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 640.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.7 B |