State Street Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| SSCJX Fund | USD 15.05 -0.15 -0.99% |
This reference view applies Simple Regression to State Street Target's historical closing prices. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of State Street Target on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.11.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as State Street Target historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. The Simple Regression projections for State Street Target are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of State Street Target on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.11 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict State Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that State Street's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest State Street | State Street Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for State Street Target focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 14.84 and upside near 16.36.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of State Street mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent State Street mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4994 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2437 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.1077 |
Other Forecasting Options for State Street
The price behavior of State is a primary concern for any investor, beginner or expert, evaluating it as an investment. State Mutual Fund price charts can be cluttered with noise that obscures the underlying trend.State Street Related Equities
The following equities are related to State Street within the Target-Date 2035 space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing State Street against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
State Street Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of State Street mutual fund allows investors to gauge how the security tracks and reacts to shifts in market momentum. These indicators are particularly useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in State Street Target.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.62 |
State Street Risk Indicators
Understanding State Street's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price with reasonable accuracy. Quantifying the risk involved in State Street's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4773 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5451 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7466 | |||
| Variance | 0.5575 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4206 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2971 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for State Street
Coverage intensity for State Street Target matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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