State Street Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SSASX Fund | USD 9.89 -0.04 -0.40% |
This page provides reference data for State Street using Polynomial Regression forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of State Street Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.61.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the State Street historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression reference page for State Street presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of State Street Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.61 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict State Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that State Street's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest State Street | State Street Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates State Street's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 9.64 and upside near 10.09.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of State Street mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent State Street mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.989 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.026 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.6102 |
Other Forecasting Options for State Street
For investors considering State, State Street's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in State Mutual Fund price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.State Street Related Equities
The following equities are related to State Street within the Intermediate Core Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing State Street against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
State Street Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for State Street provide investors with a view of how the mutual fund performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in State Street Income.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.52 |
State Street Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of State Street's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in State Street's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1655 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1875 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2208 | |||
| Variance | 0.0488 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0701 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0351 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for State Street
Coverage intensity for State Street Income matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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