STATE STREET Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SSAFX Fund | USD 89.56 0.08 0.09% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for State Street Aggregate, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of State Street Aggregate on the next trading day is expected to be 89.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.53.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting State Street Aggregate forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent STATE STREET observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. STATE STREET's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of State Street Aggregate on the next trading day is expected to be 89.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.53 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STATE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that STATE STREET's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest STATE STREET | STATE STREET Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for State Street Aggregate focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of STATE STREET mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent STATE STREET mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6789 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0041 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1398 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for STATE STREET
The price movement of STATE is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. STATE Mutual Fund price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.STATE STREET Related Equities
The following equities are related to STATE STREET within the Intermediate Core Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing STATE STREET against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
STATE STREET Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to STATE STREET mutual fund help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell State Street Aggregate.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 89.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 89.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.33 |
STATE STREET Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for STATE STREET is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in STATE STREET's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1539 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.164 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.198 | |||
| Variance | 0.0392 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0391 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0269 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for STATE STREET
A coverage review of State Street Aggregate shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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