SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SMPIX Fund | USD 56.59 -0.11 -0.19% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 56.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.56.When Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 56.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53 , mean absolute percentage error of 4.54 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.56 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SEMICONDUCTOR Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR | SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.325 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5261 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 91.5647 |
Other Forecasting Options for SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR
Regardless of investment experience, understanding SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in SEMICONDUCTOR. Price charts for SEMICONDUCTOR Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR Related Equities
The following equities are related to SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 56.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.97 |
SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR Risk Indicators
A thorough review of SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR's.
| Mean Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.2 | |||
| Variance | 17.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.42 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SEMICONDUCTOR ULTRASECTOR
Story coverage around Semiconductor Ultrasector Profund often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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