Standard Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SMP Stock  USD 35.96  0.25  0.70%   
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Standard Motor Products, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Standard's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 35.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.15.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Standard Motor Products forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Standard observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Standard is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.
Standard simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Standard Motor Products are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Standard Motor Products prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 35.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.69 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.15 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Standard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Standard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Standard Motor Products for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 33.91 and upside around 38.01 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
35.96
35.96
Expected Value
38.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Standard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Standard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8945
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0192
MADMean absolute deviation0.5692
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0143
SAESum of the absolute errors34.15
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Standard Motor Products forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Standard observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Standard

The autocorrelation structure of Standard's daily returns reveals whether Standard exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Standard Stock price data.

Standard Related Equities

Checking Standard against related firms within the Consumer Discretionary space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Profit comparisons show whether Standard earns above or below average returns next to its peers. How Standard ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Standard Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to Standard stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Standard.

Standard Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Standard is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Standard's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Standard

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Standard Motor Products can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Standard Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Standard Motor Products can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments72 M

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